Enrollment Projection Study Highlights

The Eastchester Union Free School District commissioned an outside consultant, Dr. Paul M. Seversky, to conduct an enrollment projection study. The main purpose of the study is to aid the District in decision-making. The complete study can be viewed by clicking on the following:

Enrollment Projection Study Cover Page
Enrollment Projection Study Table of Contents
Enrollment Projection Study Report (26 pages)
Enrollment Projection Study Appendix (Tables and Charts)

Highlights of the Report

  • This study is based on the trending of patterns of historical data.
  • It provides present and projected pupil enrollments based on a variety of assumptions about future kindergarten enrollments and live birth patterns.
  • The consultant uses three methodologies to predict kindergarten enrollments: Live births for the past 20 years; live births for the past 10 years; and the past ten year data is divided into (2) five year intervals (1997-2001 had more live births than 2002-2006).
  • These three kindergarten forecasts can be used to develop Low, Mid, and a High K-12 enrollment projection calculation (see Forecasts on p. 7-10).
  • Table 8 (p. FTC 10) summarizes the K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 base cohort enrollment projections for the years 2008-09 through 2018-2019 applying the cohort survival statistic and the three methodologies to estimate future kindergarten enrollments.

Superintendent Recommendation

The Superintendent of Schools recommends looking seriously at the data that focuses on “mid” K-12 enrollment projection calculations. Table 8 (p. FTC 12F) assumes that “future kindergarten enrollments will reflect the average of the area live births from 2002 through 2007 multiplied by the average ratio resulting from the set of ratios derived from comparing all of the Eastchester kindergarten enrollments from 1996 through 2007 with the annual live births in the catchment area of the school district from 1991 through 2002 (p. 10).”

Other Interesting Information

The consultant uses a very interesting study from the Brookings Institution that elaborates on the “relationship between the metro area and the cities within them.” In the case of the Eastchester School District, the analysis of the historical pattern of live births in the catchment area of the school district compared to the historical pattern of kindergarten enrollments discloses that significantly MORE children enroll in Eastchester kindergarten classes than were born in the district five years earlier. It is safe to say that the housing market of the district has attracted families with children on a consistent basis since 1988 (Table 3, p. FTC12A).

  • Low drop-out with high graduation rates contribute to higher enrollment (p. 14-16).
  • A robust employment market (NYC) can attract new residents (p. 16-18).
  • See Summary Insights, p. 24-25.

Conclusion

Regardless of which enrollment forecast is utilized (low, middle or high), the enrollment is projected to grow.

 

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